NFL Christmas 2025 Breakdown: Lions, Cowboys, Chiefs
NFL Christmas 2025 Breakdown & Predictions: Lions, Cowboys, Chiefs Take the Field
This Dec. 25, the NFL continues to double down on Christmas football by offering a historic holiday tripleheader—with two games streaming on Netflix and a third airing on Prime Video. Following Netflix’s first Christmas Gameday last year—a doubleheader that shattered viewership records, boosted by the Beyoncé Bowl halftime show—the league is extending that momentum with more games to watch this Christmas.
On Netflix, the holiday lineup kicks off with Cowboys-Commanders, followed by Lions-Vikings, before Prime Video closes the night with Broncos-Chiefs in the late window. “We have three kind of interesting games, depending on who you root for,” The Fumble’s Rodney Rikai told co-host Samaria Terry.
On paper, the Christmas slate seemed promising, but at this point in the season, it’s shaped up to be pretty underwhelming, the hosts agree. With little at stake across much of the schedule, and a season that’s felt uneven from the start, the games feel low-impact. Rodney summed it up: “This has not been the best NFL season, right? We’re seeing stars getting injured left and right. A lot of the teams who came out of the gate scorching hot in the first couple of weeks of the season are now struggling to stay afloat. And we really don’t have a clear-cut best team in the league, at this point. It’s a mid gumbo that’s going on in the NFL this season. So it’s hard for these things to matter.”
Read on as Rodney and Samaria analyze each Christmas Day matchup, weigh the teams’ strengths and vulnerabilities, and reveal their predictions for the holiday tripleheader.
Cowboys Vs. Commanders — Should the NFL air games on Christmas with no playoff stakes?
The significance of this matchup has shifted as the season progressed since the Christmas Day schedule was announced back in May. “We thought that the Commanders would have a pretty good season this year, right? (Quarterback) Jayden Daniels has been injured quite often. The defense that I thought was going to be stout has been kind of poor, if we can be honest,” Rodney said.
The Cowboys-Commanders clash, once seen as a “really big NFC East matchup,” has been reduced to “background noise,” according to Rodney. “You would think that this late in the season, a division rivalry game would actually have some stakes on the line.”
With nothing on the line, Samaria pointed out, “Both Washington and Dallas have been eliminated from playoff contention, so they’re kind of just playing.”
“It won’t be anything that will hold my attention, if we’re being all the way honest—and that’s a shame,” Rodney said.
The Fumble’s pick of the game: Dallas Cowboys
Detroit Lions Vs. Minnesota Vikings — Can the Lions get hot at the right time?
For Minnesota vs. Detroit, playoff implications give this game real weight, making this more than a holiday showcase. “Minnesota nor Detroit has been ruled out of playoff contention, so they’re both still in the hunt,” Samaria noted. “Both of these teams have something to win. This is a must-win game for both of them to keep their playoff hopes alive—depending on what happens the week before.”
With Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy playing his first full season after missing his rookie year due to a knee injury, the hosts said his inexperience could shape Minnesota’s outcome against Detroit. “They have a rookie quarterback who hasn’t played in a whole year. That’s always tough,” said Rodney.
Rodney and Samaria discussed the Lions’ season thus far, the challenges they’ve faced, and changes they’ve navigated—from key injuries to new coordinators. Rodney predicted a win for Detroit, “It’ll be interesting to see how this team that does have a lot of fight and a lot of talent may go into the playoffs as kind of an overlooked underdog and sneak by some people. I could see that.”
The Fumble’s pick of the game: Rodney predicts a Lions win while Samaria, defying her instincts, chooses the Vikings. (“I’m going to do some reverse psychology here, because I feel like every time I go for the Lions, they lose,” she said.)
Kansas City Chiefs Vs. Denver Broncos — Should the Chiefs be playing for draft position?
The final showdown on Christmas Day—Chiefs vs. Broncos—offers minimal stakes for Kansas City. Any buzz surrounding the game was effectively erased in Week 15, when the Chiefs fell out of playoff contention following their loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, ending their 10-year playoff streak. As if that wasn’t enough, quarterback Patrick Mahomes suffered season-ending ACL and LCL injuries in the same game. With nothing meaningful on the line for Kansas City, the focus may now shift toward draft positioning and preparing for next season.
“I don’t think the Chiefs have a lot of care; they’re not playing for anything,” Rodney noted. “At this point, they’re really playing for draft positioning, which is crazy to think about.”
The hosts agree: the Chiefs aren’t the team they once were. “There’s been a couple of years now where Patrick Mahomes hasn’t looked like the magician that he used to look like,” said Rodney. “I can’t quite pinpoint why that is because some of these Chiefs receivers are explosive, have a lot of speed, so they can get down the field. But there haven’t been too many big plays from the Chiefs offense this year down the field. That’s just not something that we’ve seen … For the last couple years, it hasn’t been that way.”
As for Denver, they are currently 12-2 and first place in the AFC, firmly leading their division and widely regarded as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. “I think they have a really great defense,” said Samaria. “They’re one of those sleeper teams that I feel like people overlook a little bit in the preseason, and then they continue to show why they’re so good.”
The Fumble’s pick of the game: Denver Broncos
NFL Christmas Day Schedule 2025
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders — 1 p.m. ET on Netflix
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings — 4:30 p.m. ET on Netflix
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs — 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video
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